Category Archives: Market Anakysis

Forex market analyized

EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 29 – results of the analysis of the COT report (Commitments of Traders)

EUR / USD and GBP / USD on May 29 – technical analysis recommendations
EUR / USD
Bulls, having the support of the major players in the COT report last May 19, 2020, lived up to expectations and were the leaders of the movement throughout the current week, allowing bears only minor corrections and retests. Now, the most important action is to optimistically close the week and the month of May, forming the shortest upper shadow corresponding to the candles. The technical picture of the euro at the moment is the test of the most important resistance area 1.1067-88 (the upper border of the daily cloud + weekly Kijun and Senkou Span A + monthly Tenkan), to which the pair may form good prerequisites of a breakout, but the result of the interaction will be formed later. Such will determine the further prospects of the situation.
The support for the central pivot level worked out to maintain a bullish mood in the lower time frames yesterday. Thus, the upward trend remains active today, supported by all analyzed technical analysis tools. The resistances of the classic pivot levels on H1 are now located at 1.1116 – 1.1155 – 1.1217,…

BTC analysis for May 29,.2020 – Broken upward channel and potential for the bigger drop towards the $8.750

Corona virus summary: According to an official announcement on the website of the UK Government, authority “unlocked” £150 million from dormant accounts “for coronavirus response.” Despite the word selection, to many, this sounds much like the Government seized this amount from accounts that were inactive over a certain period. This all is made possible under the so-called Dormant Asset Scheme in the UK, which is planned to expand its purview over a “range of financial assets.” An interesting take on this is provided by a recent report from Zero Hedge, which outlines that this scheme steps on the principles of laws that were prevalent back in feudal times. Among the main issues with that, apart from the fact that the Government has a legal claim over private property, is the fact that the “dormant bank account” rules can be “incredibly loose.” Technical analysis: Trading recommendation: The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Trading plan for May 29, 2020: EUR/USD – take profit!; Coronavirus updates from around the world.

Coronavirus updates from around the world, as of May 29: the second wave is on the decline, but a third is possible.In the US, the number of new cases jumped to 22 thousand, and the number of deaths arose to more than 1,000 per day. Regions recorded these increases, with New York contributing about 10% of the cases.A record-increase was also observed in Brazil, with new cases jumping to 24 thousand. Developed countries are suggested to help Brazil with doctors and funds.Meanwhile, India will be declared as the new center of the pandemic, if the situation in the country continues to deteriorate (if the growth of new cases accelerate even further).Although there is a decline in deaths around the world (deaths in the US have decreased), new cases are still at a high level (particularly in Brazil and India).In Russia, the situation in Moscow has improved, but the statistics in other regions seem to have increased. In total, Russia records 387 thousand coronavirus cases, of which 224 thousand are “active”.EUR/USD – take profit! Open buy positions from 1.0855. At the time of this writing, the quotes are at 1.1100, so wait for the pair to move about 245 pips before closing….

Hong Kong issue: the denouement is yet to come

The USD index continues to decline. The prolonged silence of Donald Trump regarding the recent events in China is affecting the US dollar negatively, so particular caution should be exercised today with regards to trading decisions. Significant changes could occur at the forex market at the end of the trading week.The Chinese parliament has ratified the extension of the already existing national security law in Hong Kong, in which the National People’s Congress will vote for its approval, presumably in June, and then the elite party will approve it, therefore most likely coming into force no earlier than August or September. Given the current situation in China, the Beijing initiative will undergo the necessary legislative processes, with only the procedural issues remaining. Much has already been said about the consequences of this law, as it “opens the gates” of Hong Kong to the Chinese security forces, greatly enhancing the influence of mainland China on the former British colony.In the forex market, the reaction of the US to the bill played a huge role on the dynamics of the rates. Although at the time of this writing, they have not been fully affected yet, the USD index has already shown small reactions,…

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on May 29

From the point of view of complex analysis, you can see the V-shaped recovery, and now let’s talk about the details.
The trading week is coming to an end, it’s time to sum up the preliminary results, so the past days were extremely volatile. The quote initially developed the area of 1.2150/1.2180 and jumped up, updating the maximum of the past week [May 19-1.2294]. After that, against the background of inertia, the level of 1.2350 was reached, where it was developed very accurately in the downward direction and against the background of new inertia, the quote declined to the area of 1.2200.
At this stage, a V-shaped mirror formation was formed with incomplete development, where activity did not decline, but, on the contrary, increased, forming a positive V-shaped formation in 27 hours, thereby returning the quote all to the same level of 1.2350.
Such a rapid desire of buyers to pull the quote as far as possible is connected with the sale of the US dollar, which is felt throughout the market.
If we make a comparative analysis with the EUR/USD currency pair, we will see that the clock components are changing, but so far the GBP/USD pair is following…

Tensions between the US and China escalates once again

On Thursday, China moved forward with a resolution to introduce national security laws in Hong Kong to quell protests that befall there.The proposal came after the US House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday, ruling out sanctions to Chinese officials involved in the suppression of Uighurs. It stemmed from the decision of the US that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China, making President Donald Trump take actions, such as the cancellation of special trade agreements, which is of great importance to many large US companies doing business in Hong Kong. However, despite all those dissents, the Chinese government still proceeded to ratify the so-called national security law, which supposedly tightens control over Hong Kong. The move further angered the United States, and the relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate.The increased hostility between Beijing and Washington over China’s human rights policies, including its relations with Hong Kong and the treatment of the Muslim minority, reinforces the demand of safe haven assets.”The souring US-China relations have returned to the forefront of the market,” wrote Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.com.Gold was also affected by the negative economic performance of the US dollar.US GDP has dropped by 5%, durable…

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 29, 2020

EUR/JPY has rallied to a high of 119.39 or just above our ideal target at 119.31. This has completed wave iii/ and we should now see a correction in wave iv/. As wave ii/ was a simple deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a complex flat correction, that doesn’t correct more than 38.2% of wave iii/. Then the pair may try to hit 117.84. Wave v/ may climb to at least 120.30 and possibly even closer to 121.16 where we see solid resistance. In the short-term, a break below minor support at 118.45 will confirm that wave iii/ has peaked and wave iv/ is in motion. R3: 120.29R2: 119.65R1: 119.39Pivot: 118.80S1: 118.45S2: 118.20S3: 117.84Trading recommendation: We took profit of 75% of our long EUR position at 119.20 enjoying a nice profit of 355 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 118.00 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, investors’ expectations for positive US data did not materialize. The volume of orders for durable goods fell by 17.2% in April after a previous drop of 14.7%. The forecast was -19.0%, but of -17.2% optimism, of course, does not cause. The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was revised down from -4.8% to -5.0% against the forecast without change (i.e. -4.8%). As a result, the dollar index lost -0.47%, the euro grew by 68 points, the S&P 500 fell by 0.21%.
Macro statistics do not have to wait for optimism to an even greater extent today. The forecast for personal incomes of consumers for April is -7.0%, for personal expenses -12.6% versus the March contraction of -7.5%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region in May is expected to increase from 35.4 to 40.1, but here (in the spirit of the times) there is a great emotional component, so the data may turn out to be worse.
The euro is moving towards its first target of 1.1140 on the daily chart. Whether there will be a price reversal from this level or the euro will continue to grow higher…

Forecast for AUD/USD on May 29, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is consolidating for the third day at the 0.6677 level (extremum of August 7, 2019, October 1, 2019, March 9, 2020, etc.). At first glance, this is a sign of continued growth, but if the price does not manage to do this before the Marlin oscillator signal line goes into the negative area, it will fall. The purpose of growth is the record level of 0.6820. In the event of a price reversal, the first goal will be to support the embedded line of the price channel at around 0.6470.
According to Marlin, divergence is observed on the four-hour chart, but the price is higher than the indicator lines of balance and MACD, which shows sufficient potential for continued growth, if not to the target level of 0.6820, then with the possibility of a false exit above the first target level of 0.6677. Departure of the price to the signal level of 0.6569 will confirm the Australian dollar in adherence to the main scenario – to initially drop to 0.6470, then to lower targets (0.6328, 0.6107).
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 29, 2020

USD/JPY
The US stock market (S&P 500) lost 0.21% on Thursday due to weak economic data: the volume of orders for durable goods fell by 17.2% in April, the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was revised down from -4.8 % to -5.0% against an unchanged forecast (i.e. -4.8%). The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is down 0.65% today in the Asian session. The currency pair itself, following the stock market, turned down from the signal level of 107.78 yesterday and approached the support of the embedded price channel line (107.37) this morning, overcoming which will allow the price to fall to the MACD indicator line (107.12), then, in case it leaves the area under the MACD line, to the target level of 106.75.
The price has consolidated below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. The probability of the bears’ success, that is, overcoming the support of 107.37 is 62-65%.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…