Tag Archives: forex economic calendar

Brazil Services Sector Shrinks At Record Pace On Covid-19 Disruption

Brazil’s service sector shrunk at the fastest pace in the survey’s 13-year history in March as businesses were shut and demand shrunk due to the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Brazil Services Business Activity Index plummeted by nearly 16 points to 34.5 from 50.4 in February. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in activity. New work fell at the fastest pace since the survey began in March 2007, thanks to cancelled orders and business shutdowns. Export demand dropped at a rapid rate that exceeded the fall in total demand, mainly due to containment measures adopted globally to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employment fell at the fastest rate since October 2016, as businesses shed jobs in a bid to reduce operating costs amid shutdowns. Average costs increased sharply in March, but the overall rate of input price inflation was the slowest since last November. A strong US dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of imported items, pushed up purchasing costs. Charge inflation remained modest, but was the fastest in three months. Business confidence eroded sharply with expectations being the weakest since the survey…

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD (daily) in April 2020. The analysis of the APLs

Minor operational scale (daily time frame)
In the second month of spring – what will happen with the “raw” currencies AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD? Overview of the development of the traffic movement from April 4, 2020.____________________
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
Testing and direction of the range breakdown:
resistance level of 0.6100 – median line minute;support level of 0.6000 – the upper border of the channel 1/2 median line fork operational scale minuteIt will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD/USD from April 4, 2020.
Sequential breakdown of support levels:
0.6000 – upper limit of the channel 1/2ML minute;0.5965 – lower bound of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale minor;0.5930 – lower bound of ISL61. 8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale minute;Confirm the development of the movement of the Australian dollar in the channel 1/2 median line minute (0.6000 – 0.5860 – 0.5730) with the prospect of reaching the minimum price of 0.5510.
When sharing the breakdown of the median lines (resistance of 0.6100) and median line minor (0.6130) – option of the movement AUD/USD to the upper limit of ISL61.8 (0.6240) zone equilibrium fork operational scale minute and channel borders 1/2 median line (0.6275 -…

Eurozone Private Sector Logs Record Fall In March

The euro area private sector logged its biggest monthly fall on record in March as the coronavirus disease, or covid-19, pandemic impacted heavily on economic activity, final data from IHS Markit showed Friday. The final composite output index fell sharply to 29.7 in March from 51.6 in February. This was also weaker than the flash estimate of 31.4. Both services and manufacturing sectors recorded notable declines in output in March. Manufacturers posted the sharpest fall in production since April 2009. At the same time, services activity declined at a record pace. The final services Purchasing Managers’ Index plunged to a record low of 26.4 from 52.6 a month ago. The reading was also below the preliminary estimate of 28.4. The covid-19 pandemic and associated measures taken to contain the outbreak through Europe weighed heavily on business performance. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit said, the data indicate that the eurozone economy is already contracting at an annualized rate approaching 10 percent, with worse inevitably to come in the near future. Incoming new work deteriorated to the greatest extent in the 22-year survey history. Further, confidence about the future was the lowest recorded by the survey since…

GBP/USD: plan for the US session on April 3. Bears are counting on a major flight of the pound down. The support of 1.2315

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:Bears managed to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2315 in the first half of the day after very poor data on activity in the UK services sector. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. However, the continuation of the downward trend in the pound will depend on data on the state of the US labor market. In the second half of the day, the bulls urgently need to return a pair back to the level of 1.2315, since only in this scenario will it be possible to maintain the advantage. If the decline continues in GBP / USD, it is best to return to long positions only after the support test of 1.2150 or to rebound from the larger minimum of 1.1985, in the expectation of correction of 60-70 within the day. A breakout and consolidation above 1.2315 will push purchases to the maximum area of 1.2473, where I recommend fixing the profits.To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:The bears coped with the weekly task and broke below the support of 1.2315 from the 5th time. Sellers of the pound in the second half of the day need to achieve…

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on April 3. Bears continue to control the market and follow the set course to the lows of

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Another sale of the European currency after the publication of business activity indices for the services sector of the eurozone led the pair to the support of 1.0790. I paid attention to this in the morning forecast. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how the bulls try to form a false breakout, successfully making several bounces from this level, but each time they meet with larger sales. At the moment, the further movement of the euro down depends on the analysis of data on the labor market. It is unlikely that the bulls should expect the support of 1.0790, so it is best to return to long positions after updating the minimum of 1.0718, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or immediately to rebound from the annual support of 1.0626. In the scenario of the pair’s growth in the second half of the day after the data on the state of the US economy, the bulls will try to regain the resistance of 1.0880, which will push EUR/USD even higher, to the maximum of 1.0955, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers continue to follow a clearly…

Japanese Yen Higher Amid Rising Risk Aversion

The Japanese yen climbed against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Friday amid rising risk aversion, as oil prices retraced gains and a private survey showed that China’s services sector contracted further in March. Survey data from IHS Markit showed that China’s services activity contracted in March due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on demand and supply chains. The Caixin services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 43.0 in March from 26.5 in February. However, a score below 50 indicates contraction. Oil prices fell after soaring on Thursday following President Donald Trump’s comment that he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to co-operate on output reduction. The United States reported a record 6.648 million jobless claims last week led by shut downs to contain the virus. Investors await the March payroll data due at 8:30 am ET. Economists are expecting a drop of 100,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is seen rising to 3.8 percent. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases crossed the 1 million mark globally with a death toll of 53,030, according to the new tally from Johns Hopkins University. Around 1,015,403 people have been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus across the world….

Will the dollar stop plan B?

All attempts by the Fed to rein in the US dollar were futile. Neither a sharp reduction in the federal funds rate, nor the launch of unlimited purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds under QE, nor the transfer of liquidity to foreign central banks using swaps and repos has dampened investors’ interest in buying the USD index. If this continues, I am afraid that currency interventions will be necessary. According to BofA Merrill Lynch, this will happen when the EUR/USD pair falls to 1.05.
In theory, this scale of dollar liquidity and the rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet should have knocked the “American” down. Nevertheless, the number of supporters of the “dollar smile” theory is growing rapidly. It assumes that at the first stage, the USD index is strengthened due to the strength of the US economy and the associated inflow of capital to the US securities market. When a recession begins, the dollar peaks as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Then, thanks to those who want to save stock indices from falling into the abyss with the help of aggressive monetary expansion, the Fed forms the bottom of the smile. After that, the dollar begins to grow again, as…

Analysis for Gold 04.03.2020 – Watch for the potential breakout of the channel to confirm downside. Gold is at the major

Corona virus news:China seeks to lead amid talk of 10m potential global casesResidents of Wuhan, the Chinese city where the Covid-19 pandemic began, have been told to stay indoors and remain vigilant ahead of an easing of travel restrictions. Meanwhile, Beijing is stepping up a media campaign in the west to frame its handling of the disease as an example of global leadership. The country’s Covid-19 statistics have been called into question, but on Thursday China recorded just 31 new cases, 29 of them in people arriving from other countries.Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upwards.The price tested and rejected of the very important pivot level at $1.619, which is sign that there is potential for downside rotation.I found the upward channel that is active and the eventual breakout to the downside may confirm further drop towards the levels at $1.566 and $1.515. Selling opportunities will be preferable in case of the downside break.If you see the breakout of $1.620 level, watch for buying opportunities on the dips with the target at $1.643. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and potential for the downside movement.Intraday resistance level is set at the price of $1.619Support levels and downward targets are set at…

Analysis of AUD/USD on April 3, 2020

Hello, dear traders!
It’s time to consider the AUD/USD currency pair, the technical picture of which is quite interesting. But more on that later.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), along with other leading global central banks, announced the introduction of temporary swaps in the US currency in order to increase liquidity. In addition, the RBA together with the Australian government decided to allocate about 100 billion Australian dollars to support the Australian economy.
Let’s look at the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair, and since this tool is analyzed once a week, let’s start with the corresponding timeframe.
Weekly

After falling to the level of 0.5510, the pair began to adjust from the previous fairly strong and prolonged decline. Attempts to continue to recover losses in the current five-day trading failed at the level of 0.6215, from where the pair again turned in the south direction.
In fairness, it should be noted that the results of weekly trading will be determined by data on the US labor market, which will be published at 13:30 (London time). Economists’ forecasts are very pessimistic, and if the actual numbers turn out to be even worse than expected, the US currency risks falling under a wave of sales.
The current…