Tag Archives: forex markets

Pound Falls Sharply As U.K. Services PMI Shrinks To Record Low

The pound moved down against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as coronavirus cases exceeded one million worldwide and U.K. service sector activity slumped in March amid business shutdowns and order cancellations in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Survey data from IHS Markit/CIPS showed that the U.K. services PMI fell to 34.5 in March from 53.2 in February. This was also weaker than the flash estimate of 35.7. This reading was the lowest since the survey began in July 1996. The composite output index dropped to 36.0 in March from 53.0 in February. The flash score was 37.1. Weak Eurozone purchasing manager data rekindled recession concerns. The IHS Markit eurozone services purchasing managers index slumped to a reading of 26.4 in March from 52.6 in February, the worst-ever reading in the history of the series, as the covid-19 pandemic and associated measures taken to contain the outbreak through Europe weighed heavily on business performance. The pound fell to 132.95 against the yen, from a high of 134.09 set at 7:00 pm ET. The next likely support for the pound is seen around the 127.00 level. The latest survey from Jibun Bank showed that the services…

Spain Industrial Production Decline Slows In February

Spain’s industrial production fell at a softer pace in February, data from the statistical office INE showed on Friday. Industrial production declined a calendar adjusted 1.3 percent annually in February, following a 2.2 percent fall in January. Energy output had the biggest decline of 4.1 percent annually in February and non-durable consumer goods decreased 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, durable consumer goods remained unchanged. On an unadjusted basis, industrial output rose 0.1 percent in February, after a 3.8 percent decline in the preceding month. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production remained unchanged in February. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Will the dollar stop plan B?

All attempts by the Fed to rein in the US dollar were futile. Neither a sharp reduction in the federal funds rate, nor the launch of unlimited purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds under QE, nor the transfer of liquidity to foreign central banks using swaps and repos has dampened investors’ interest in buying the USD index. If this continues, I am afraid that currency interventions will be necessary. According to BofA Merrill Lynch, this will happen when the EUR/USD pair falls to 1.05.
In theory, this scale of dollar liquidity and the rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet should have knocked the “American” down. Nevertheless, the number of supporters of the “dollar smile” theory is growing rapidly. It assumes that at the first stage, the USD index is strengthened due to the strength of the US economy and the associated inflow of capital to the US securities market. When a recession begins, the dollar peaks as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Then, thanks to those who want to save stock indices from falling into the abyss with the help of aggressive monetary expansion, the Fed forms the bottom of the smile. After that, the dollar begins to grow again, as…

Analysis of EUR/USD on April 3, 2020

Waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls
Hello, dear colleagues!
The main event of today and the whole week will be data on the US labor market, which will be published at 13:30 London time. Economists’ forecasts are disappointing. It is expected that the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% immediately to 3.8%, and the growth of the average hourly wage will be the usual 0.2%. As for the creation of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the American economy, this indicator may fall to minus 100 for the first time since the financial and economic crisis of 2008.
In principle, market participants are well aware that in the context of the ongoing rampant COVID-19 around the world, strong data on the US labor market can not be expected. Interest is aroused by the actual figures and the reaction of investors to them. Has the coronavirus epidemic had such a significant impact on the economy of the United States of America, or will it be a little later? There will certainly be negative consequences for the world’s leading economy. The question is when exactly to expect a peak?
So far, it is in the United States that the most severe outbreak of a new type of coronavirus is…

Australia Retail Sales Climb 0.5% In February

Retail sales in Australia rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday – coming in at A$27.755 billion. That beat expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent decline in January. The following industries rose in seasonally adjusted terms in February 2020: Food retailing (0.8 percent), Department stores (3.1 percent), Household goods retailing (0.7 percent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2 percent), and Other retailing (0.2 percent). Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-2.9 percent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in February 2020. The following states and territories rose in seasonally adjusted terms in February 2020: Queensland (0.8 percent), Victoria (0.5 percent), Western Australia (1.2 percent), South Australia (0.4 percent), and the Australian Capital Territory (1.1 percent). Tasmania (0.0 percent) and New South Wales (0.0 percent) were relatively unchanged. The Northern Territory (-0.7 percent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in February 2020. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Australia Construction Index Slides In March – AiG

The construction sector in Australia continued to contract in March, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group showed on Friday with a seasonally adjusted Performance of Construction Index score of 37.9. That’s down from 42.7 and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. It also marks the lowest index reading since May 2013. Across the four construction, the house building sector indicated modest growth for a fourth consecutive month. Contractions in the apartment and commercial construction sectors were steeper, while the contraction in engineering construction activity eased slightly in March. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

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