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U.S. Leading Economic Index Climbs Much More Than Expected In January

Indicating the current economic expansion will continue through the first half of 2020, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing a much bigger than expected increase by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators. The Conference Board said its leading economic index climbed by 0.8 percent in January after falling by 0.3 percent in December. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent. The bigger than expected rebound by the index reflected a sharp drop in initial jobless claims, increasing housing permits, an improvement in consumers’ outlook on the economy and positive contributions from financial indicators. “The LEI’s six-month growth rate has returned to positive territory, suggesting that the current economic expansion – at about 2 percent – will continue through early 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board. He added, “While weakness in manufacturing appears to show signs of softening, the COVID-19 outbreak may impact manufacturing supply chains in the US in the coming months.” The report also said the coincident economic index inched up by 0.1 percent in January after showing no change in December. Meanwhile, the lagging economic index came in unchanged in January after edging…

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Modest Increase

A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 15th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims crept up to 210,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 206,000 Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 210,000 from the 205,000 originally reported for the previous week. Meanwhile, the report said the less volatile four-week moving average edged down to 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 212,250. The Labor Department also said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, rose by 25,000 to 1.726 million in the week ended February 8th. The four-week moving average of continuing claims still dipped to 1,722,250, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 1,727,500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

February 20, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

On December 30, a bearish ABC reversal pattern was initiated around 1.1235 (Previous Key-zone) just before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1100 (In the meanwhile, the EURUSD pair was losing much of its bearish momentum).One more bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1175 where the depicted key-zone as well as the recently-broken uptrend were located. That’s why, quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1100 then 1.1035 which failed to provide enough bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair.Further bearish decline took place towards 1.1000 where the pair looked quite oversold around the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel where significant bullish rejection was able to push the pair back towards the nearest SUPPLY levels around 1.1080-1.1100 (confluence of supply levels (including the upper limit of the channel).Since then, the pair has been down-trending within the depicted bearish channel until last week when bearish decline went further below 1.0950 and 1.0910 (Fibonacci Expansion levels 78.6% and 100%) establishing a new low around 1.0790.Currently, the EUR/USD pair looks quite oversold after such a long bearish decline and if bullish recovery is expressed above 1.0845-1.0860, further bullish advancement would be expected towards 1.0910 then 1.0950.Intraday traders are advised to look for signs of…

February 20, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

On December 13, the GBPUSD pair looked overpriced around the price levels of 1.3500 while exceeding the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel.On the period between December 18th – 23rd, bearish breakout below the depicted channel followed by temporary bearish closure below 1.3000 were demonstrated on the H4 chart.However, immediate bullish recovery (around 1.2900) brought the pair back above 1.3000.Bullish breakout above 1.3000 allowed the mentioned Intraday bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3250 (the backside of the broken channel) where bearish rejection and a new wide-ranged movement channel were established between (1.3200-1.2980).Recently, new descending highs were demonstrated around 1.3200 and 1.3070.Recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2890 (the lower limit of the movement channe) where evident bullish rejection has been manifested on February 10.This week, Temporary bullish breakout above 1.3000 has been expressed until Yesterday when another bearish decline was expressed.As expected, The current bearish decline below 1.2980 is leading the GBPUSD pair towards the lower limit of the channel @ 1.2870 -1.2850 where price action should be watched.Intraday technical outlook is supposed to remain bearish as long as the pair maintains its movement below 1.2930 (Intraday Keylevel).Temporary bullish recovery around (1.2850-1.2870), followed by another bearish…

Poland Industrial Production Rises; Producer Price Inflation Slows

Poland’s industrial production rose unexpectedly in January, and producer price inflation slowed, figures from the Statistics Poland showed on Thursday. Industrial production rose 1.1 percent year-on-year in January. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent fall. Manufacturing output rose 1.9 percent annually in January. Among the main sectors, production of water supply grew 7.5 percent. Meanwhile, production of mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply declined 10.4 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. Intermediate goods output increased by 3.1 percent, and production of durable consumer goods and capital goods rose by 2.0 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. Energy and non-durable consumer goods production decreased by 3.7 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. On a monthly basis, industrial production gained 4.5 percent in January. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production rose 3.5 percent annually in January. Another data showed that the producer prices rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in January, slower than 1.0 percent in December. This was in line with economists’ expectation. On a month-on-month basis, producer prices edged up 0.1 percent in January, same as seen in the preceding month. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Germany Producer Prices Rise Unexpectedly

Germany’s producer prices rose unexpectedly in January, data from Destatis showed on Thursday. The producer price index rose 0.2 percent year-on-year in January, reversing a 0.2 percent decrease seen in December. Economists had expected a 0.4 percent fall. Among the components, prices for non-durable consumer goods grew 3.6 percent annually in January and those of durable consumer goods and capital goods rose by 1.4 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, prices for intermediate goods and energy declined by 1.5 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. On a monthly basis, producer prices increased 0.8 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent rise in the previous month. Economists had expected prices to remain unchanged. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Markets gone mad

Good afternoon, dear traders!
I think I will not surprise anyone if I say that at a very interesting time we live and trade. Recently, the market has changed a lot, and this, in my opinion, is connected with the economic crisis, which, in my opinion, is already underway. The trigger was the Chinese epidemic of coronavirus. This virus, in addition to casualties, brought incredible fear, which pushed gold to distance.
But the most affected are the currencies. Everything falls – the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and absolutely ignoring the positive news on base currencies.
EUR/USD has been falling recoilless already on the 14th day as part of a common two-year fall! Look at the stories – when did this happen and at what events? The last time this happened is in 2018, and before that during the crisis in 2014.
You, of course, say that everything is bad in the eurozone! Let’s look further.
GBP/USD completely ignores the positive news in the country’s economy.
AUD/USD plummets to good employment, breaking through the lows of 2018 and 2019: The “fear indicator”, gold, is at its highest point in the last 7 or 8 years, completely ignoring…

Dutch Consumer Confidence Decline Slows In February

Dutch consumer confidence decline slowed in February, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The consumer confidence index rose to minus 2 in February from minus 3 in January. A similar reading was seen in December. Nonetheless, the consumer confidence index has remained above the 20-year average of minus 5 points. The economic climate sub-index rose to minus 5 in February from minus 7 in the previous month and the indicator for willingness to buy increased to 1. Households’ assessment regarding their financial situation for the next 12 months improved. However, consumers felt that it is favorable to make large purchases. Another report from the statistical office showed that household spending growth increased in December with higher purchases of home furnishing, electrical appliances, and cars. Consumer spending grew 2.9 percent annually in December, after a 1.4 percent increase in November. This was the highest since July 2018, when it was 3.0 percent. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Forecast for GBP/USD on February 20, 2020

GBP/USD
The pound fell by 75 points yesterday, the price noted a low of December 23 and is now ready for further movement towards the previously identified goals at 1.2845 (110.0% Fibonacci level), 1.2758 (123.6%). The price on the daily chart is below the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is falling in the zone of negative values.
On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the MACD line, Marlin is also in a stable falling position. We look forward to the pound declining further.
But today there may be a slight delay in the planned decline. In the afternoon, data on retail sales in the UK for January are released, the forecast for them is 0.7% versus -0.6% in December, the balance of production orders for the current month may also slightly improve – the forecast is -19 versus -22 in January. Technically, it will be consolidation in the range of February 10th.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…