Tag Archives: Forex

U.S. Leading Economic Index Climbs Much More Than Expected In January

Indicating the current economic expansion will continue through the first half of 2020, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing a much bigger than expected increase by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators. The Conference Board said its leading economic index climbed by 0.8 percent in January after falling by 0.3 percent in December. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent. The bigger than expected rebound by the index reflected a sharp drop in initial jobless claims, increasing housing permits, an improvement in consumers’ outlook on the economy and positive contributions from financial indicators. “The LEI’s six-month growth rate has returned to positive territory, suggesting that the current economic expansion – at about 2 percent – will continue through early 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board. He added, “While weakness in manufacturing appears to show signs of softening, the COVID-19 outbreak may impact manufacturing supply chains in the US in the coming months.” The report also said the coincident economic index inched up by 0.1 percent in January after showing no change in December. Meanwhile, the lagging economic index came in unchanged in January after edging…

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Modest Increase

A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended February 15th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims crept up to 210,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 206,000 Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 210,000 from the 205,000 originally reported for the previous week. Meanwhile, the report said the less volatile four-week moving average edged down to 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 212,250. The Labor Department also said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, rose by 25,000 to 1.726 million in the week ended February 8th. The four-week moving average of continuing claims still dipped to 1,722,250, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 1,727,500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 20. The pound goes against all the rules. A good report on retail sales led

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:
Major sellers of the pound acted exactly according to yesterday’s scenario and taking advantage of good news on the volume of retail sales in the UK today. They drop the GBP/USD pair to another monthly low. A small rebound up to 1.2930 served only as a good level for opening new short positions. At the moment, the bears rested on the support of 1.2851, around which trade is conducted. Several tests have only led to a small upward correction of the pair. So an important task for buyers in the second half of the day will be to return the resistance to 1.2884, which will lead to a more powerful upward momentum in the area of 1.2922 and 1.2967, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a support breakout of 1.2851, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from the lows of 1.2830 and 1.2799.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:
The bears continued to push the pound down. Major players took advantage of the good news on the UK and retail sales, which allowed them to quickly gain large positions on the background of speculators’ purchases,…

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 20. The euro continues to stagnate around annual lows. The sellers’ target remains

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Data on German producer prices helped keep the euro at this year’s lows, forming a false breakdown from the support area of 1.0785, which also led to the formation of a divergence on the MACD indicator. This is a bullish signal, however, given the current position of the European currency, it is not necessary to count on strong upward momentum. In the scenario of a breakthrough and a decline below the level of 1.0785 in the afternoon, it is best to return to long positions after the area of 1.0765 is updated or immediately to a rebound from the larger low of 1.0740. An equally important task for the bulls will be to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.0825, from which a good upward correction will be formed in the area of the highs of 1.0860 and 1.0886, where I recommend taking the profits.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
The bears continue to bend their line, however, they have not managed to break below the support of 1.0785 for the third day in a row, which may lead to a sharp rebound of the pair up. Apparently, the sellers are…

*UK Jan Retail Sales Ex-auto Fuel Up 1.6% M/M V. -0.8% In Dec, Consensus 0.8%

UK Jan Retail Sales Ex-auto Fuel Up 1.6% M/M V. -0.8% In Dec, Consensus 0.8% The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Gold 02.20.2020 – Overbought condition and resistance on the test at $1.617

Technical analysis:Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1.618. I see resistance at the level of $1.617 (Upper diagonal of Pitchfork channel), which is indication that Gold is overbought zone and that buying looks risky at this stage.Watch for potential downside rotation if you see any topping pattern or bearish divergence on the lower time-frames. Downside objectives are set at the price of $1.604 and $1.593.Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition, which adds even more risk for buyers. Major resistances is set at the price of $1.617 Support levels are set at the price of $1.604 and $1.593The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Trading recommendations for EURUSD pair on February 20

From a comprehensive analysis, we see another slowdown in the area of lows, where downward interest is still a priority. Now, about the details. A steady bearish interest is striking in its stability, where a move of more than 440 points has been formed since the beginning of the year. This value hides not just a movement but the structure of the global trend. So the theory of downward development is now in the center of everyone’s attention since the euro updates local minimums almost on a daily basis. Psychological ranges (1.0700/1.0850; 1.0500/1.0700; 1.0000//1.0350//1.0500) increase the interest of speculators, however, they are alarming since there may be a stop with a reverse surge at any moment. If we consider the theory in terms of the medium-term course, it is too early to worry since the main flow of emotions will come during price fluctuations in the range of 1.0000//1.0350//1.0500 where without the support of the information background, speculators will not get along.
In terms of volatility, we see a sharp slowdown of 35% relative to the average daily indicator and the regularity of past periods has shown that such significant stops bring new bursts of activity.
Analyzing the past day…

Euro, pull yourself together!

The total weakening of the European currency is starting to seriously worry the market. It looks like a protracted disease that the euro cannot get rid of. Experts fear that with a prolonged fall in the euro, it will “slip through” all the chances for recovery that the market gives from time to time.
Currently, the single European currency continues to stomp within annual lows, and in relation to the US currency, it has fallen to three-year lows. An extremely weak data on the Eurozone business sentiment index from ZEW became an additional nail in the coffin for the euro. Recall that February of this year, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for Germany rapidly fell to 8.7 points from 26.7 points recorded in January. Analysts also noted a deterioration in the assessment of the economic situation. By the beginning of this year, the German economy had disappointed the market. A negative reaction to an outbreak of coronavirus infection added fuel to the fire, due to the fact that it can drastically slow down global trade, which will put additional pressure on the euro.
According to reports on the eurozone economy, the current situation is not encouraging either, as the…

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 02/20/2020

Honestly, what is happening on the market surprises more and more. The pound completely ignores its own statistics, but reacts extremely violently to the American currency. And in theory, the single European currency also had to decline under the influence of American statistics. However, it stood still, as if nothing had happened. Thus, it cannot be said that the market definitely pays attention only to American statistics.At the same time, inflation data in the UK turned out to be incredibly good, as it increased from 1.3% to 1.8% instead of the forecast of 1.4%. Indeed, such a sharp increase in inflation clearly indicates that the Bank of England will not lower the refinancing rate for at least the first half of the year. And inflation itself is a factor favorable for the currency market. Nevertheless, investors did not seem to see this data.Inflation (UK):The market behaved exactly the same way at the time of publication of data on construction in Europe, the volume of which decreased by 3.7%. That is, after the news that instead of growth by 1.2%, construction is generally declining, investors behaved in the most usual way – nothing, as if this data was not there.Scope of construction…

Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on February 20, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).The market may continue to move down today with the target at 1.0783, the lower fractal (red dashed line). Breaking down the lower fractal is unlikely but work up is possible from the level of 1.0783.Fig. 1 (daily chart).Comprehensive analysis:- Indicator analysis – down;- Fibonacci levels – down;- Volumes – up;- Candlestick analysis – up;- Trend analysis – up;- Bollinger Lines – up;- Weekly schedule – up.General conclusion:A continued downward movement is expected today with the target of 1.0783, the lower fractal (red dashed line).An unlikely but possible scenario is from the lower fractal 1.0783 (red dashed line), a continued work down with the goal of 1.0664, the retracement level of 85.4% (yellow dashed line).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…