Tag Archives: market watch

Gold will face important challenges next week.

Gold price remains in a bullish short-term trend as price continues to respect Kumo (cloud) support. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and a big test is waiting for bulls this Monday. A major downward sloping trend line resistance will be the first obstacle next week.Black line – resistance trend lineGold price is at a major resistance. Price is testing the trend line and the recent highs near $1,630. Support is at $1,610-$1,605 and next at $1,596. A 4 hour close below these levels will be a bearish sign for Gold. If this happens I expect Gold to pull back towards $1,553 which is the lower cloud boundary. Another indicator that confirms we are at important resistance is the Chikou span (light blue line indicator). The Chikou span is hitting the candlestick pattern from below. The Chikou span confirms we are now at important resistance area. Bulls need to break above it in order to hope for a move to $1,650 or higher.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Brazil Services Sector Shrinks At Record Pace On Covid-19 Disruption

Brazil’s service sector shrunk at the fastest pace in the survey’s 13-year history in March as businesses were shut and demand shrunk due to the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Brazil Services Business Activity Index plummeted by nearly 16 points to 34.5 from 50.4 in February. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in activity. New work fell at the fastest pace since the survey began in March 2007, thanks to cancelled orders and business shutdowns. Export demand dropped at a rapid rate that exceeded the fall in total demand, mainly due to containment measures adopted globally to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employment fell at the fastest rate since October 2016, as businesses shed jobs in a bid to reduce operating costs amid shutdowns. Average costs increased sharply in March, but the overall rate of input price inflation was the slowest since last November. A strong US dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of imported items, pushed up purchasing costs. Charge inflation remained modest, but was the fastest in three months. Business confidence eroded sharply with expectations being the weakest since the survey…

U.S. Employment Plunges Much More Than Expected In March

Employment in the U.S. fell much more than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The report said employment plunged by 701,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 275,000 jobs in February. Economists had expected employment to slump by 100,000 jobs compared to the addition of 273,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. With the much bigger than expected drop in employment, the unemployment rate surged up to 4.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February. The unemployment rate had been expected to climb to 3.8 percent. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Dollar Ticks Up Following U.S. Jobs Data

Following the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for March at 8:30 am ET Friday, the greenback edged up against its major counterparts. The greenback was trading at 108.50 against the yen, 0.9781 against the franc, 1.2256 against the pound and 1.0780 against the euro around 8:31 am ET. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

April 3, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Since January 13, progressive bearish pressure has been built above the price level of 1.2780-1.2800 until March the 2nd when transient bearish consolidation below 1.2780 took place within the depicted wide-ranged slightly bearish channel.Shortly after, significant bullish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2780 on March 4. Hence, a quick bullish movement was expressed towards the price zone of 1.3165-1.3200 where significant bearish pressure brought the pair back below 1.2780, 1.2500 then 1.2260 via quick bearish engulfing H4 candlesticks.Recently, the GBPUSD has reached new LOW price levels around 1.1450, slightly below the historical low (1.1650) achieved in September 2016.Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked very OVERSOLD around the price levels of 1.1450 where a double-bottom reversal pattern was recently demonstrated.Technical outlook will probably remain bullish if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts.Bullish breakout above 1.1900 (Latest Descending High) invalidated the bearish scenario temporarily & enabled a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.2260.Next bullish targets around 1.2520 and 1.2680 were expected to be addressed if sufficient bullish momentum was maintained.However, early bearish pressure signs have originated around 1.2470 leading to another bearish decline towards 1.2265.That’s why, H4 Candlestick re-closure below 1.2265 is needed to hinder further bullish advancement…

GBP/USD: plan for the US session on April 3. Bears are counting on a major flight of the pound down. The support of 1.2315

To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:Bears managed to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2315 in the first half of the day after very poor data on activity in the UK services sector. This is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. However, the continuation of the downward trend in the pound will depend on data on the state of the US labor market. In the second half of the day, the bulls urgently need to return a pair back to the level of 1.2315, since only in this scenario will it be possible to maintain the advantage. If the decline continues in GBP / USD, it is best to return to long positions only after the support test of 1.2150 or to rebound from the larger minimum of 1.1985, in the expectation of correction of 60-70 within the day. A breakout and consolidation above 1.2315 will push purchases to the maximum area of 1.2473, where I recommend fixing the profits.To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:The bears coped with the weekly task and broke below the support of 1.2315 from the 5th time. Sellers of the pound in the second half of the day need to achieve…

Will the dollar stop plan B?

All attempts by the Fed to rein in the US dollar were futile. Neither a sharp reduction in the federal funds rate, nor the launch of unlimited purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds under QE, nor the transfer of liquidity to foreign central banks using swaps and repos has dampened investors’ interest in buying the USD index. If this continues, I am afraid that currency interventions will be necessary. According to BofA Merrill Lynch, this will happen when the EUR/USD pair falls to 1.05.
In theory, this scale of dollar liquidity and the rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet should have knocked the “American” down. Nevertheless, the number of supporters of the “dollar smile” theory is growing rapidly. It assumes that at the first stage, the USD index is strengthened due to the strength of the US economy and the associated inflow of capital to the US securities market. When a recession begins, the dollar peaks as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Then, thanks to those who want to save stock indices from falling into the abyss with the help of aggressive monetary expansion, the Fed forms the bottom of the smile. After that, the dollar begins to grow again, as…

BTC analysis for 04.03.2020 – Major pivot resistance at the price of $7.000 is on the test, potential for downside rotation

BTC news:With growing mobile money across the globe, Revolut has joined the list of growing bank challengers in the UK. The platform is offering an alternative to the central government-controlled fiat currency. With a fixed supply, Bitcoin is seen as the alternative to the fiat especially at a time when governments are printing more money through the quantitative easing program.Technical analysis: BTC has been trading upwards.The price tested and rejected of the very important pivot level at $7.000, which is sign that there is potential for downside rotation. The action around the critical level at $7.000 will be important fore the further direction.Yesterday’s daily close was well off the high, which is another sign that there is potential for the downside.MACD oscillator is still showing reading below the zero but the slow line is going upwards.Major resistance is set at $7.000 and the next one is at $7.630.My recommendation is to watch for selling opportunities around the critical pivot at $7.000.Potential targets can be set at $6.131, $5.180 and even $3.877The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Analysis of EUR/USD on April 3, 2020

Waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls
Hello, dear colleagues!
The main event of today and the whole week will be data on the US labor market, which will be published at 13:30 London time. Economists’ forecasts are disappointing. It is expected that the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% immediately to 3.8%, and the growth of the average hourly wage will be the usual 0.2%. As for the creation of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the American economy, this indicator may fall to minus 100 for the first time since the financial and economic crisis of 2008.
In principle, market participants are well aware that in the context of the ongoing rampant COVID-19 around the world, strong data on the US labor market can not be expected. Interest is aroused by the actual figures and the reaction of investors to them. Has the coronavirus epidemic had such a significant impact on the economy of the United States of America, or will it be a little later? There will certainly be negative consequences for the world’s leading economy. The question is when exactly to expect a peak?
So far, it is in the United States that the most severe outbreak of a new type of coronavirus is…

EUR/USD. April 3. 1 million cases of COVID-2019 virus in the world. The euro is preparing for a new fall. The trader is waiting

EUR/USD – 1H.

Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, everything goes according to plan. The new downward trend line clearly indicates the “bearish” mood of most traders. Thus, it will be possible to sell the pair until the quotes close above this very trend line. In general, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling on April 3. News coming from various parts of the world remains disappointing. The COVID-2019 virus continues to spread, and today the official number of infected people around the world has exceeded 1,000,000. Most of the sick citizens are in America, but this does not make any negative impression on the American currency. Also yesterday, traders were very happy to miss the important economic report from the US on unemployment…
EUR/USD – 4H.

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964) and a reversal in favor of the US dollar with the resumption of falling quotes. As a result, at the moment, traders have worked out the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.0840) and now either there will be a rebound from this level or closure under it. In the first case, a reversal will be made in favor of…