Tag Archives: trade

Brazil Services Sector Shrinks At Record Pace On Covid-19 Disruption

Brazil’s service sector shrunk at the fastest pace in the survey’s 13-year history in March as businesses were shut and demand shrunk due to the coronavirus, or Covid-19, outbreak, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Brazil Services Business Activity Index plummeted by nearly 16 points to 34.5 from 50.4 in February. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in activity. New work fell at the fastest pace since the survey began in March 2007, thanks to cancelled orders and business shutdowns. Export demand dropped at a rapid rate that exceeded the fall in total demand, mainly due to containment measures adopted globally to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Employment fell at the fastest rate since October 2016, as businesses shed jobs in a bid to reduce operating costs amid shutdowns. Average costs increased sharply in March, but the overall rate of input price inflation was the slowest since last November. A strong US dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of imported items, pushed up purchasing costs. Charge inflation remained modest, but was the fastest in three months. Business confidence eroded sharply with expectations being the weakest since the survey…

U.S. Employment Plunges Much More Than Expected In March

Employment in the U.S. fell much more than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The report said employment plunged by 701,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 275,000 jobs in February. Economists had expected employment to slump by 100,000 jobs compared to the addition of 273,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. With the much bigger than expected drop in employment, the unemployment rate surged up to 4.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February. The unemployment rate had been expected to climb to 3.8 percent. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD (daily) in April 2020. The analysis of the APLs

Minor operational scale (daily time frame)
In the second month of spring – what will happen with the “raw” currencies AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD? Overview of the development of the traffic movement from April 4, 2020.____________________
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
Testing and direction of the range breakdown:
resistance level of 0.6100 – median line minute;support level of 0.6000 – the upper border of the channel 1/2 median line fork operational scale minuteIt will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD/USD from April 4, 2020.
Sequential breakdown of support levels:
0.6000 – upper limit of the channel 1/2ML minute;0.5965 – lower bound of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale minor;0.5930 – lower bound of ISL61. 8 equilibrium zone of the forks of the operational scale minute;Confirm the development of the movement of the Australian dollar in the channel 1/2 median line minute (0.6000 – 0.5860 – 0.5730) with the prospect of reaching the minimum price of 0.5510.
When sharing the breakdown of the median lines (resistance of 0.6100) and median line minor (0.6130) – option of the movement AUD/USD to the upper limit of ISL61.8 (0.6240) zone equilibrium fork operational scale minute and channel borders 1/2 median line (0.6275 -…

Pound Falls Sharply As U.K. Services PMI Shrinks To Record Low

The pound moved down against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as coronavirus cases exceeded one million worldwide and U.K. service sector activity slumped in March amid business shutdowns and order cancellations in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Survey data from IHS Markit/CIPS showed that the U.K. services PMI fell to 34.5 in March from 53.2 in February. This was also weaker than the flash estimate of 35.7. This reading was the lowest since the survey began in July 1996. The composite output index dropped to 36.0 in March from 53.0 in February. The flash score was 37.1. Weak Eurozone purchasing manager data rekindled recession concerns. The IHS Markit eurozone services purchasing managers index slumped to a reading of 26.4 in March from 52.6 in February, the worst-ever reading in the history of the series, as the covid-19 pandemic and associated measures taken to contain the outbreak through Europe weighed heavily on business performance. The pound fell to 132.95 against the yen, from a high of 134.09 set at 7:00 pm ET. The next likely support for the pound is seen around the 127.00 level. The latest survey from Jibun Bank showed that the services…

EUR/USD evening review for April 03, 2020. Market stuck in the range, to wait for the US state on Monday

Them US employment report for March was released which showed less than 700 thousand jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 4.5%.In the past years, Eureka would either soar up or drop-down, but now it stands still.The data from March serves as a recollection of the Tatar invasion. Over the past two weeks, the number of new unemployment benefits in the United States amounted to almost 10 million.The US administration pays huge sums of money to businesses and households in the midst of the pandemic, after all, there are almost 250,000 infected in the United States.In Moscow, Russia the number of infected cases is still at 3,500 which is so far an exponential increase, and the quarantine is still to last until April 30th. Amid this quarantine, the Russian authorities do not propose to pay people who find themselves in FORCED non-working condition.This was directly stated by Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, saying that, “The budget will not stand. We believe that the business has enough money to pay a month of vacation to employees.”Germany, on the other hand, paid their forced “vacationers” employees at about 3 Salaries. That is without any inquiries, just on request and…

Eurozone Private Sector Logs Record Fall In March

The euro area private sector logged its biggest monthly fall on record in March as the coronavirus disease, or covid-19, pandemic impacted heavily on economic activity, final data from IHS Markit showed Friday. The final composite output index fell sharply to 29.7 in March from 51.6 in February. This was also weaker than the flash estimate of 31.4. Both services and manufacturing sectors recorded notable declines in output in March. Manufacturers posted the sharpest fall in production since April 2009. At the same time, services activity declined at a record pace. The final services Purchasing Managers’ Index plunged to a record low of 26.4 from 52.6 a month ago. The reading was also below the preliminary estimate of 28.4. The covid-19 pandemic and associated measures taken to contain the outbreak through Europe weighed heavily on business performance. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit said, the data indicate that the eurozone economy is already contracting at an annualized rate approaching 10 percent, with worse inevitably to come in the near future. Incoming new work deteriorated to the greatest extent in the 22-year survey history. Further, confidence about the future was the lowest recorded by the survey since…

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on April 3. Bears continue to control the market and follow the set course to the lows of

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Another sale of the European currency after the publication of business activity indices for the services sector of the eurozone led the pair to the support of 1.0790. I paid attention to this in the morning forecast. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how the bulls try to form a false breakout, successfully making several bounces from this level, but each time they meet with larger sales. At the moment, the further movement of the euro down depends on the analysis of data on the labor market. It is unlikely that the bulls should expect the support of 1.0790, so it is best to return to long positions after updating the minimum of 1.0718, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or immediately to rebound from the annual support of 1.0626. In the scenario of the pair’s growth in the second half of the day after the data on the state of the US economy, the bulls will try to regain the resistance of 1.0880, which will push EUR/USD even higher, to the maximum of 1.0955, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers continue to follow a clearly…

Will the dollar stop plan B?

All attempts by the Fed to rein in the US dollar were futile. Neither a sharp reduction in the federal funds rate, nor the launch of unlimited purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds under QE, nor the transfer of liquidity to foreign central banks using swaps and repos has dampened investors’ interest in buying the USD index. If this continues, I am afraid that currency interventions will be necessary. According to BofA Merrill Lynch, this will happen when the EUR/USD pair falls to 1.05.
In theory, this scale of dollar liquidity and the rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet should have knocked the “American” down. Nevertheless, the number of supporters of the “dollar smile” theory is growing rapidly. It assumes that at the first stage, the USD index is strengthened due to the strength of the US economy and the associated inflow of capital to the US securities market. When a recession begins, the dollar peaks as investors flee to safe-haven assets. Then, thanks to those who want to save stock indices from falling into the abyss with the help of aggressive monetary expansion, the Fed forms the bottom of the smile. After that, the dollar begins to grow again, as…

Singapore Retail Sales Decrease In February

Singapore retail sales decline at the fastest pace in February, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Friday. Retail sales declined 8.6 percent year-on-year in February, following a 5.3 percent fall in January. Motor vehicle sales rose 1.3 percent annually in February, following a 33.6 percent fall in the previous month. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales decreased 10.2 percent in February, after a 0.6 percent increase in the preceding month. Sales of wearing apparel and footwear declined the most by 41.0 percent in February and those of food and alcohol, and department stores decreased 40.5 percent and 36.3 percent, respectively. On a monthly basis, retail sales dropped 8.9 percent in February, after a 0.2 percent rise in the prior month. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com…